The February 2026 Steam Next Fest is in the books. Over 2,200 games participated. A handful broke out. Most didn't. The question every developer who participated is asking: what actually separated the winners from the rest?
After analyzing data from dozens of participating studios and cross-referencing with Chris Zukowski's ongoing survey work at howtomarketagame.com, patterns emerge. Not magic formulas, but clear signals about what mattered and what turned out to be noise.
The Wishlist Benchmarks That Actually Mean Something
Let's start with the numbers everyone wants to know. Based on accumulated data from multiple Next Fests, here's what the tiers look like:
Diamond (10,000+ wishlists earned during the fest): You had a breakout event. These games typically entered with significant existing momentum and left with enough wishlists to hit Popular Upcoming on launch day.
Gold (7,000-9,999 wishlists): Strong performance. You validated market interest and have a clear path to a successful launch.
Silver (1,000-6,999 wishlists): The middle ground where most games land. You have something, but the market response wasn't explosive. This is actionable data, not a death sentence.
Bronze (0-999 wishlists): Something fundamental needs attention before launch. Could be capsule art, tags, genre positioning, or the game concept itself.
The uncomfortable truth that keeps showing up in the data: games entering Next Fest with fewer than 1,000 existing wishlists rarely break into the higher tiers. The median game in that bracket earned around 460 wishlists during the fest. Not zero, but not transformational either.
Genre Performance: The Patterns Nobody Talks About
Horror games continue to overperform during October editions, which surprises exactly nobody. But the February 2026 data revealed more interesting patterns.
Co-op games punched above their weight. Anything with "play with friends" energy got disproportionate content creator attention. The streaming and YouTube economy loves games that create social moments, and Next Fest is when creators are actively hunting for their next series.
Survival craft remained strong. The "crafty-buildy-strategy-simulation" cluster that Zukowski has been tracking for years showed no signs of cooling off. If your game involves gathering resources, building things, and gradual progression, Steam's audience is still hungry for it.
Narrative games struggled for visibility. Visual novels and walking sims had a harder time breaking through the noise. These genres often convert better post-launch when word-of-mouth builds, but the festival format favors games with immediate visual hooks.
Roguelikes are saturated but still viable. The genre isn't dying, but differentiation is non-negotiable. "It's a roguelike" is table stakes now, not a selling point. "It's a roguelike where X" is the minimum bar.
What the Winners Had in Common
Looking at games that hit Diamond or high Gold tier, several patterns repeated:
They entered with momentum. Not a single Diamond-tier game in the February data entered with fewer than 3,000 existing wishlists. Most entered with 10,000 or more. Next Fest amplifies existing momentum. It does not create momentum from nothing.
Their capsule art communicated instantly. At 120x45 pixels (Steam's smallest capsule size), you could still identify the genre and visual style. No text required. No squinting. Just instant recognition.
They had content creator coverage before the fest started. The games that trended on Day 1 typically had YouTube videos or Twitch coverage dropping 24-48 hours before the fest began. That external traffic triggered Steam's algorithm to boost them in the discovery systems.
Their demos ended on cliffhangers. The highest-converting demos cut off right when players were most engaged. Not after a natural stopping point. In the middle of the action. "What happens next?" drives wishlist buttons harder than "that was satisfying."
What Didn't Matter (As Much As People Think)
Demo length beyond the 15-30 minute sweet spot. Games with 2-hour demos didn't outperform games with 20-minute demos. Content creators don't have time for 2-hour demos during fest week, and players who spend 2 hours in a demo often feel like they've "played the game" and don't need to wishlist.
Posting on Day 1 vs Day 2. The algorithm gives roughly equal visibility during the first 48 hours. The Day 3 sort is when the algorithm starts picking favorites based on engagement data. What you do before Day 3 matters more than whether you launched Monday morning or Tuesday afternoon.
Twitter announcement threads. Sorry. Twitter/X impressions on announce posts correlated weakly with wishlist gains. The platforms that moved needles were YouTube, Twitch, TikTok, and Reddit. Twitter is good for reaching other devs. It's not great for reaching players.
The Press Kit Connection
Here's where the data gets interesting for us specifically. We looked at games that hit Diamond tier and checked whether they had professional, up-to-date press kits available during the fest.
Every single one did.
Correlation isn't causation, but the mechanism is straightforward. Content creators and journalists need assets to make coverage. If your press kit is missing, outdated, or hard to find, some percentage of potential coverage simply doesn't happen. During a condensed week where creators are evaluating dozens of games, friction kills.
The games with the strongest creator coverage had press kits that included:
- High-resolution screenshots (not Steam page rips)
- Downloadable trailer files (not just YouTube embeds)
- Clear logo files with transparent backgrounds
- A one-paragraph pitch that creators could adapt for their video descriptions
None of this is complicated. All of it takes preparation.
What to Do Differently for June
If you participated in February and landed in Silver or Bronze tier, the path forward isn't "try harder next time." It's specific changes based on what the data tells you.
If your impressions were reasonable but wishlists were low: Your capsule art and store page aren't converting. The algorithm showed your game to people. They didn't click or wishlist. Redesign your capsule, rewrite your short description, consider whether your first three screenshots are doing their job.
If your impressions were low from the start: Your tags might be wrong or your genre positioning unclear. Check which Next Fest subcategories you appeared in. Were you competing in a section dominated by games with much higher production values? Consider whether different tags would put you in front of a more relevant audience.
If you entered with under 1,000 wishlists: Don't participate in June. Seriously. Spend the next 4-5 months building your wishlist base through smaller festivals, content creator outreach, and community building. Enter October with 5,000+ wishlists and watch the multiplier effect work in your favor.
The Counterintuitive Lesson
The developers who "won" Next Fest in February 2026 didn't win because of anything they did during the fest week. They won because of everything they did in the 6-12 months before it.
Next Fest is a harvest, not a planting season. You can't plant seeds on Day 1 and expect a crop by Day 7. The games that break out are the ones that arrive with fields already full, ready for the festival to multiply what's already growing.
If you're reading this in February thinking about October, you have eight months. That's enough time to build real momentum. Start your trailer, polish your demo, build your creator relationships, and launch your press kit. October's results are being determined by what you do between now and then.
Free Tool: Next Fest Readiness Score — Score your Next Fest preparation and identify gaps before you register. Runs in your browser, no signup required.
